The tax credit for first-time homebuyers has recently expired and economists and financial analysts are clamoring over the potential impact it has had and will continue to have on the housing market. At first glance, this federal stimulus program indeed jump-started sputtering home sales. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) estimates that 4.4 million home buyers will receive the tax credit [1]. They further explain that this amounts to around 900,000 buyers who have purchased a home, who, without the credit, would not have. Brokerages are riding on a three month rise in pending home sales, which they directly attribute to the first time homebuyers’ tax credit. Could this mean the end to the housing crisis?
Not likely, according to many market analysts. While the tax credit has stabilized home prices, and homes sales increased by record numbers since the beginning of 2010, experts warn that this is an artificial upturn, and that prices will remain ‘flat’ and the market may continue to be ‘sluggish’ for the remainder of the year [2]. Their evidence lies in the overabundance of ‘shadow inventory.’ Although foreclosures have slowed, home repossessions have still risen, leaving a glut of homes waiting to be listed by banks. Homeowners and banks have been waiting for market conditions to improve before putting properties on the market, creating a backlog of an estimated 4.5 million homes, driving supply up. Increased supply could likely drive prices down creating a cycle of little to zero appreciation on homes within the coming months [3].
Many realtors are expecting a deceleration in home sales over the summer months due to the ‘hangover effect’ created by the tax credit, whereby buyers scrambled to sign contracts for homes to obtain the tax credit, effectively borrowing buyers from later months. Since the first-time homebuyers tax credit ended on April 30, mortgage applications have plummeted [3], and business in real estate offices has dropped off. Instead of the fast and furious pace of the last few months, realtors are now experiencing their normal pace and scrambling for new business.
The only foreseeable saving grace for the imminent future is low mortgage rates backed by historically low federal interest rates. And, it’s likely interest rates will remain low due to the debt crisis in Europe and downturn in the stock market that has taken a major toll on consumer confidence. Optimists feel that affordable mortgages are still feasible and, coupled with low home prices, a slow and protracted rebound in the housing market may occur [2].
But what about all those would-be homebuyers who couldn’t get their deal to close by the June 30th because of the overabundance of new buyers? Or what about the deals that are facing unforeseen delays, or short sales, if they do not close by the June 30th? There are already rumblings of an extension to this tax credit for closing dates beyond June 30th, for those buyers who are already under contract. It seems only fair that buyers that were under contract by the April 30th cutoff be given a little wiggle room for their closing date. Mortgage and title companies have been slammed with too much work created by the tax credit, delaying many deals. Plus, with many homeowners facing the threat of foreclosure, there is a high number of short sales, which can sometimes take months to settle. It is only reasonable that everyone who qualified for the tax credit by going under contract by April 30th be able to actually take advantage of the tax credit.
With all of these opposing forces on the housing and mortgage markets, it remains to be seen whether or not the first time homebuyers’ tax credit will be extended or expanded, yet again, and if there will be any long-lasting effects on the housing market, as a whole. If the country’s economic recovery is any indication of how the housing market will recover, however, realtors, homeowners, and homebuyers may have some waiting around to do. While the government may have had the right idea in trying to spur home sales with the tax credit, it may not have been enough to aid the housing market beyond the life of the tax credit. Only time will tell.


